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9 March 2007

6.5 - 7.0% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2007

The GDP in the IV quarter of 2006 reached a real growth of 6.4% - reported the Central Statistical Office. According to the Minister for Finance (MF) – growth during the first quarter of 2007 could even reach 6.5 – 7%.

 Initial estimates of GDP for the IV quarter of  2006, confirms what was observed since the second half of 2005: the quickening tempo of economic growth. The main engine for this economic trend have been investments, which have grown to 19.3%, whilst the influence of consumer consumption has slackened.

The FM stated that in the current quarter investment will still play the dominant role. Such a growth of investment may carry on into successive quarters. We estimate that in the first two quarters they will grow by over 20%. Which provides the basis for our estimates of  the growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2007. It was stated on Friday by Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska, deputy minister of finance.

In the opinion of the Board for Monetary Politics, the dynamic tempo for economic growth during the final quarter of last year, combined with the low inflation, gives no cause for changing the monetary politics or for raising interest rates.

Polish Investment and Trade Agency

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